The financial services sector in Hungary has been fairly active in recent years. The entire Hungarian banking sector seems to be in a state of flux, mostly due to the various steps taken by the Hungarian government in an attempt to counter the effects of the global financial crisis and to the Hungarian-specific problem of widespread foreign currency-based lending arrangements. Although approximately 70% of the Hungarian banking market is foreign-owned, the government has clearly stated its intention to decrease this proportion to 50%.
As a result, the M&A market has followed three principal trends: (1) share deals made mostly for strategic reasons, as some players leave the market and others enter it; (2) portfolio deals between existing players as some downsize and others make strategic acquisitions; and (3) the emergence of new investment from new entrants in new market segments such as payment services.
These trends may be further strengthened by the asset quality reviews currently ongoing at Hungarian banks. The expectation is that, just like in the rest of Europe, the AQR will expedite decision-making on portfolio transfers and strategic departures from markets.
One obstacle to leaving the Hungarian market is that many major international players have converted their local subsidiaries into branches in order to benefit from home-country supervision and to free up regulatory capital. Although successful in achieving these objectives, the change creates a potential problem on exit, as the local branch of a foreign parent company may not be disposed of by share sale (although asset deals may be considered).
The problem with asset deals, however, is that if a complex foreign exchange denominated loan portfolio is to be transferred by way of an asset deal, any litigation affecting the portfolio must remain with the transferor. Under Hungarian law, the claimant’s consent is required before a claim can be transferred to a new defendant. This creates a significant problem for foreign exchange (FX) portfolios, which are affected by significant litigation, as potential transferors will only be interested in selling their loan portfolios if they can also get rid of any litigation connected to them.
The second phase of legislation, due in September/October 2014, is expected to provide clarification for the banking sector as the new law renders certain FX claims invalid but does not fully explain how customers will be compensated once invalidity is established. Until the second phase legislation is in place, uncertainty will reign in the market.
Another rumor sweeping the market is that the Government plans to introduce further radical changes affecting FX loan customers, perhaps even compelling the conversion of certain foreign currency denominated loans to be converted into HUF loans. At the moment, it is unclear when and how this measure would be taken and how much the financial impact of it would be absorbed by financial institutions and how much by the Government.
The net result is likely to be large losses for banks that, in recent years, have imposed on their customers forced currency conversion or unilateral margin increases (often creating unfair and invalid repayment obligations). Following such losses, a certain degree of consolidation of the Hungarian banking system is likely.
New legislation on resolution and recovery procedures will add another layer of color to the banking sector by giving the local regulator new powers to exercise effective control over banks in financial difficulties.
By Erika Papp and Ivan Sefer, Partners, CMS Budapest
This Article was originally published in Issue 4 of the CEE Legal Matters Magazine. If you would like to receive a hard copy of the magazine, you can subscribe here.